Which NFL teams *actually* got better this offseason? - With Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points

Which NFL teams *actually* got better this offseason? - With Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points

The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff
Apr 4, 2025 • 58:00
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Episode Notes

Kevin Cole joined the show to break down his offseason Improvement Index, a data-driven tool used to evaluate how NFL rosters have improved (or declined) year-over-year. His work at UnexpectedPoints.com has become must-read material for analytically-minded fans, bettors, and even NFL front office staff. Here are the key insights from our conversation:

What is Unexpected Points?

Kevin describes the site as catering to the "nerdy, numberier football fan." His content draws from past experience at PFF and DFS sites like RotoGrinders, focusing on analytics that aren't always directly tied to betting or fantasy, but absolutely inform both. In-season, he does deep game reviews and quarterback analysis. In the offseason, he shifts toward roster value, draft strategy, and team improvement projections.

How the Improvement Index Works

  • Core concept: The Index projects a team’s upcoming season based on the prior year’s roster, then adjusts for offseason changes using a plus-minus metric similar to the NBA.

  • Player value is measured using EPA-based on/off-field impact, smoothed through clustering of similar players.

  • Participation data (i.e., snap counts) is used to weight contributions, with additional considerations for injury risk, coordinator changes, and scheme tendencies.

  • Point differential: Each team has a point differential in the index. A +43 improvement doesn’t mean the Patriots will score 43 more points. It means their projected point differential is 43 points better than if they had kept their 2024 roster intact. That’s worth about 1.3 wins this year.

Roster Modeling Nuance

  • Rotational players are harder to model, so Kevin smooths out usage based on prior snaps and coaching history.

  • Fullbacks, centers, and low-snap positions get context-specific adjustments depending on scheme and replaceability.

  • Coaching changes don’t radically shift the projection unless it’s a QB or team-level philosophy shift.

Team-Level Highlights